Polymarket Top Markets This Week

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Weekly recap of Polymarket's highest-volume and most volatile prediction markets (elections, geopolitics, crypto, Fed decisions), with the reasoning behind the moves

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-07-06

Fed odds crack, BTC squeezes

Fed odds fell, BTC squeezed higher, and Polymarket’s weekly signals shifted from last week’s Hormuz lead toward rates, crypto liquidity, Strategy stress, and selective geopolitics trades.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-29

Doha talks flip the Hormuz trade

A short interim Polymarket update covering June 28 9:32 AM to June 29 9:00 AM UTC-5. The lead signal shifted from pure Hormuz escalation to a US-Iran diplomacy verification trade, while BTC ETF outflows, Strategy capital-structure stress, and Russia-Ukraine resolution risk remain secondary watch items.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-28

Hormuz odds collapse to 3.55%

Hormuz normalization odds fell to 3.55% as US-Iran escalation rippled into oil, nuclear-deal, BTC, and Fed-pricing signals.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-26

Russia-Ukraine odds jump to 98%

Russia-Ukraine diplomatic-meeting odds surged to 97.8% without a confirmed public meeting date; Hormuz fell below 10%, BTC stabilized after expiry, and Fed hike risk shifted toward September.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-25

BTC at $59K as ETF outflows hit record −$469M

BTC at $59K: record −$469M ETF outflow, Hormuz +12pp spike, Senate war-powers flip, Core PCE keeps hike odds at 53%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-24

Brent hits pre-war lows as tankers exit Hormuz — BTC Day 25 Extreme Fear

Brent crude erases all war premium at $74.73 as three tankers exit Hormuz; IAEA confirms Iran inspections survive the Trump-Tehran inspection dispute; Senate passes a 50-48 war-powers rebuke; BTC logs Day 25 of all-time-record Extreme Fear at $61,289; ETF outflows hit −$113.8M; Polymarket's Hormuz July 31 sits at 44% and the Fed hike-in-2026 binary reads 57.5%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-23

BTC crashes to $62K as KOSPI trips twice — and Polymarket's entire geopolitics section goes dark

BTC fell 4.4% to $62,412 on an AI-trade unwind that triggered Korea's KOSPI circuit breakers twice and wiped $530M+ in crypto positions. Simultaneously, Polymarket delisted all 8 Middle East geopolitical markets — eliminating the Hormuz, Iran deal, and Israel-Hezbollah signal layer — while Trump and Iran issued contradictory accounts of inspection talks.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-22

Switzerland deal roadmap, Hormuz July 31 crosses 50%

Bürgenstock talks yield a 60-day deal roadmap; Hormuz July 31 surges +9pp to 51% while Brent drops 3.3%.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-21

Bürgenstock talks open, Hormuz July 31 at 42%

US-Iran four-party talks opened at Bürgenstock Sunday even as prediction markets priced further skepticism — Hormuz July 31 fell −3.5pp to 42% and the end-of-June contract hit 6.5% (−1.0pp). Fed hike-in-2026 dropped −5.5pp to 60.5% on a quiet weekend. Bitcoin's Fear & Greed Index extended its unprecedented Extreme Fear streak to 22 consecutive days. The Ethiopia PM market posted $6.25M in 24h volume on an already-expired contract, flagged as a potential UMA dispute to watch.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-20

Hormuz re-closed, enrichment −38pp, day 20 Fear

Iran re-closed Hormuz citing ceasefire violations; enrichment −38pp to 4.5%; 20th straight Extreme Fear day.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-19

Bürgenstock off, Fed hike 65.5%, day-19 Extreme Fear

The planned US-Iran MOU signing at Bürgenstock, Switzerland was scrapped on June 19 after Lebanon flared overnight — Israeli strikes killed 18+, Hezbollah killed four Israeli soldiers, and both JD Vance and the Iranian delegation withdrew. Prediction markets repriced 8–12 hours ahead of news wire coverage: the uranium enrichment contract collapsed −21pp to 42.5%, and the June 19 diplomatic meeting market dropped −53pp to 1.6%. A separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect at 4pm Lebanon time. On the Fed side, the hike-in-2026 binary accelerated another +13pp to 65.5% as Warsh's dot-plot continued digesting into market structure. BTC slipped to $63,028; ETF Day 23 deepened to −$90.7M led by IBIT (−$96.7M); Fear & Greed printed 14 — the 19th consecutive Extreme Fear day, a new all-time record.

Polymarket Top Markets This Week2026-06-18

Iran deal RESOLVED YES, Warsh flips rate-hike odds above 50%

The Iran permanent peace deal resolved YES across all 17 Polymarket deadlines ($478.9M total volume, 4 UMA rounds), closing the biggest geopolitical bet of 2026 after Trump and Pezeshkian signed remotely from the G7. Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC press conference delivered a dot plot median of 3.8% (from 3.4%), pushing the hike-in-2026 binary above 50% for the first time (+22pp) and zero-cuts to 79.65%. BTC absorbed both: −2.2% to $63,796, $406M liquidated across 98,000 traders, ETF Day 22 reversed to −$82.2M, Fear & Greed at 15 — an 18th consecutive Extreme Fear day record. Hormuz end-June normality sits at 12.5%; ~600–1,500 ships remain stranded pending mine clearance and a fee-regime dispute.

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